My View With One Week Left

As I sit here at my desk, 9 am on Monday morning, I wonder what I will be thinking at this time next week.  Will I be looking at tomorrow as a day of Victory? Will I be looking at tomorrow as a day of uncertainty? Or will I be looking at tomorrow with my hands on my head and my head between my knees?

Unfortunately I see the latter as the most likely possibility.

This morning I’ve already read what seems like a hundred articles, most of which concentrate on battle ground state polls, but two are sticking in my head.  The first is a blog post by Adam Fogle and the second is an analysis in the Washington Post by David Frum of the American Enterprise Institute.

Adam Fogle wrote:

Todd said black voter turnout in next month’s election could be close to 100 percent in some normally red states, which would result in an overwhelming victory for Democrat Barack Obama over Republican John McCain… So where are these “magical” numbers Todd is referencing? Beats me. I’ve looked everywhere and the only thing I can find is an Associated Press story saying that blacks are significantly outperforming their 2004 early voting turnout in North Carolina, Georgia and Florida. But no mention of anything that would support the 100 percent turnout claim.

David Frum wrote:

There are many ways to lose a presidential election. John McCain is losing in a way that threatens to take the entire Republican Party down with him.

A year ago, the Arizona senator’s team made a crucial strategic decision. McCain would run on his (impressive) personal biography. On policy, he’d hew mostly to conservative orthodoxy, with a few deviations — most notably, his support for legalization for illegal immigrants. But this strategy wasn’t yielding results in the general election. So in August, McCain tried a bold new gambit: He would reach out to independents and women with an exciting and unexpected vice presidential choice.

That didn’t work out so well either. Gov. Sarah Palin connected with neither independents nor women. She did, however, ignite the Republican base, which has come to support her passionately. And so, in this last month, the McCain campaign has

Palinized itself to make the most of its last asset. To fire up the Republican base, the McCain team has hit at Barack Obama as an alien, a radical and a socialist.

Sure enough, the base has responded. After months and months of wan enthusiasm among Republicans, these last weeks have at last energized the core of the party. But there’s a downside: The very same campaign strategy that has belatedly mobilized the Republican core has alienated and offended the great national middle, which was the only place where the 2008 election could have been won.
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I could pile up the poll numbers here, but frankly . . . it’s too depressing. You have to go back to the Watergate era to see numbers quite so horrible for the GOP.

McCain’s awful campaign is having awful consequences down the ballot.

I don’t want to comment on Frum’s analysis of the McCain campaign’s team or their strategy. I do agree however that the national political environment is having awful consequences down the ballot. Maybe it’s not an awful McCain strategy as Frum suggests. It’s not McCain’s fault that the economy is in turmoil and its all being blamed on the current administration. Still, it is propelling the Democrats and allowing them to play in safe Republican districts, many of which will be close for no other reason than the national backlash.  Red state voters may not be ready for the big government change Barack Obama is pushing, but they are ready for some sort of change. Their anger is bad for incumbents and Republicans.

Adam Fogle wrote one of the worst political analysis I’ve ever seen and I’m hoping for the sake of his candidates that it’s some sort of spin to make John McCain look good.  Chuck Todd is right. African American turnout will be higher than it’s ever been and ANY Republican not counting on 95% – 100% African American turnout with straight Democratic Party voting is operating with faulty strategy. Fogle says that he’s looked “everywhere” for proof and he can’t find anything.  Besides the polling Fogle should be seeing but obviously is not, I’d suggest he go sit outside the Richland County Board of Elections for about an hour.

With one week left I feel safe saying that a nasty national atmosphere and the highest African American turnout in history will spell disaster for many down ballot Republican candidates across the country, even in the redest of red states. John McCain has been down before and made unbelievable comebacks, but in order to save his fellow Republicans, he better make one hell of a comeback real dang fast.

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